It is not long now until the final declarations for the first two days of the Festival are published. Once running plans are finally known, bookmaker odds can change significantly, as gambles on fancied horses start to gain momentum.
There is, therefore, a small window of opportunity to try to grab some final value before the markets mature, but picking the right time to take the plunge is a balancing act.
If you bet before those declarations are made your selection may not run. If you wait until afterwards, you might miss the price.
However, we also need to bear in mind that on the day of each race the bookmakers are likely to offer incentives that are not currently available, including, most importantly, extra places.
Here are a few of the horses we are keeping an eye on with a view to potentially backing them early, if they are declared to run:
In the Festival Plate on the opening day both JUNGLE BOOGIE and THEATRE NATIVE currently look overpriced.
Jungle Boogie has been disappointing in two starts since joining Venetia Williams, but that yard has been out of form for much of the season. They've had a few more winners recently and don’t forget this horse ran really well for along way in the Gold Cup in 2024.
He ran out of stamina that day and so this drop in trip should suit him. He could also be very well handicapped off of a mark of 148 and can be backed at 40/1 in places.
Theatre Native is also of interest because of some previous course form. She won a novices’ handicap chase at Cheltenham’s April meeting.
She disappointed in the Paddy Power Gold Cup back here in November, but looks ground dependent and could return to form now back on a sounder surface (currently 33/1).
The race that follows is the National Hunt Chase and whilst the exchanges are suggesting MAXI MAC GOLD won’t run, we would be very interested in him were he to do so. He looks sure to be suited by this extreme stamina test (currently 50/1 in places).
Declarations for the day one races will be revealed at 10am on Sunday.
Day two starts with the Turners Novices' Hurdle and BARON NOIR is entered here and in the Supreme. For us, he would be of much more interest if he ran here as he looks likely to improve for a step up in trip (currently 40/1).
He has plenty of top class bumper form in his locker including a defeat of El Cairos at Punchestown in May. He also had Act Of Innocence behind him in a bumper at Newbury last February, which was won by Sober Glory.
He’d be one to consider if a large field goes to post and extra places are on offer.
Finally, the Cross Country Chase isn’t our favourite race at the Festival, but two we’ve currently got our eye on are the young French raider KARRE D’AS and PIED PIPER.
If the top weights are declared, many of those at the bottom will have to run from out of the handicap, which would help this pair (currently 16/1 & 25/1 respectively).
The French horses always need to be respected in these banks races, whilst Pied Piper should love the drying ground and marathon trip.